First published in 1952 in Galaxy Science Fiction, this gripping novelette blends statistical analysis, social satire, and apocalyptic suspense in classic Heinlein style. The story follows Potiphar Breen, a quiet, eccentric statistician who notices disturbing patterns emerging from his vast collection of data. Across economics, politics, social behavior, and even fashion trends, the numbers all point toward one grim conclusion — the world is heading for a convergence of catastrophic events.
Breen’s orderly life changes when he meets Meade Barstow, a spirited young woman on the run from trouble. Together, they travel across a restless America, witnessing bizarre social breakdowns and strange cultural phenomena that seem to confirm Breen’s predictions. What begins as a curious statistical puzzle turns into a tense countdown toward a global disaster.
Heinlein masterfully weaves humor and romance into an increasingly dark narrative, balancing witty banter with unsettling scenes of a civilization sliding toward chaos. The science behind Breen’s forecasts — rooted in probability theory and cycles of human behavior — gives the story a sense of eerie plausibility.
As the “jackpot year” draws to a close, Breen and Meade must decide how to face the ultimate crisis — with resignation, defiance, or hope. The climax delivers both a human and cosmic twist, reinforcing Heinlein’s theme that humanity’s fate is tied as much to individual courage as to the cold patterns of statistics.